ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN IN BAHRAIN

Authors

  • DR. SMARTSON P. NYONI
  • MR. THABANI NYONI

Keywords:

pregnant, provision, women

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Bahrain from 1990 – 2018, the study seeks to make forecasts for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the Z series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) process or the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The study established that the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Bahrain is likely to increase from the estimated 24.4% in 2017 to almost 26.1% by 2025. The study basically recommends that the government of the Kingdom of Bahrain should intensify its national flour fortification program and free provision of universal healthcare services including antenatal care programs in order to reserve the predicted trends in the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in the country.

Downloads

Published

2021-01-22

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 10 (2020): IJIERT

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 DEED).

You are free to:

  1. Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
  2. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

Under the following terms:

  1. Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
  2. NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes .
  3. NoDerivatives — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material.
  4. No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.

Notices:

You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .

No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.

 

Rights of Authors

Authors retain the following rights:
1. Copyright and other proprietary rights relating to the article, such as patent rights,
2. the right to use the substance of the article in future works, including lectures and books,
3. the right to reproduce the article for own purposes, provided the copies are not offered for sale,
4. the right to self-archive the article.