ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN IN BAHRAIN
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Abstract
Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Bahrain from 1990 – 2018, the study seeks to make forecasts for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the Z series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) process or the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The study established that the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Bahrain is likely to increase from the estimated 24.4% in 2017 to almost 26.1% by 2025. The study basically recommends that the government of the Kingdom of Bahrain should intensify its national flour fortification program and free provision of universal healthcare services including antenatal care programs in order to reserve the predicted trends in the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in the country.
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