ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN IN INDIA

Abstract

The prevalence of anemia in Indian pregnant women is amongst the highest in the world. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in India from 1990 – 2018, the study endeavors to make forecasts for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, X, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is really stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in India among pregnant women will decrease by only 1% over the out-of-sample period. Indeed, anemia in pregnant women will remain a serious challenge in India over the period 2017 – 2025 and even beyond. There is need for continued iron supplementation during pregnancy for reproductive women in the country.