ADULTS NEWLY INFECTED WITH HIV IN RWANDA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Based on annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Rwanda from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study will apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The presented diagnostic tests show that the H series under consideration is a stationary variable. Hinged on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 0, 3) model as the parsimonious model. The residual correlogram further reveals that the presented model is stable. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Rwanda is likely to increase from 3107 in 2019 to almost 5704 new infections by 2030. Even though Rwanda’s national HIV programme has been touted as successful, our model shows that the gains of this noble programme are slowly being reversed; and by 2030, Rwanda will face a more serious challenge of HIV if no action is taken, now. Amongst other policy recommendations, the study basically encourages the government of Rwanda to continue scaling up HIV prevention and treatment activities throughout the country.