OPEN DEFECATION IN ETHIOPIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Authors

  • Dr. Smartson. P. Nyoni ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Mr. Thabani Nyoni Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Using annual time series data onthe number of people who practice open defecation in Ethiopiafrom 2000 –2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 –2022. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. ThediagnosticADF tests indicatethatthe series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC,the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the bestmodel. The diagnostic tests further indicatethat the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels.The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Ethiopiais likely to decline over the period2018 –2022, from as high as 19% to as low as 5.69% of the total population. In order to sustainably maintainthis desirable downwards trend, the study suggested a three-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the Ethiopiangovernment

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Published

2021-03-27

Issue

No. 1 (2020): Special Issue

Section

Articles

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