ADULTS NEWLY INFECTED WITH HIV IN KENYA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Authors

  • DR. SMARTSON P. NYONI
  • MR. THABANI NYONI

Keywords:

employed, time, HIV, prevention

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Kenya from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study employed the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the B series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 0, 4) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram further reveals that the presented ARIMA (2, 0, 4) model is stable. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Kenya is expected to continue to fall from the estimated 36229 new infections to nearly 4726 new infections by 2030. This would be a significant improvement in Kenya’s quest for an AIDS-free society. Amongst other policy conclusions, the study basically encourages the relevant authorities in Kenya to continue scaling up HIV prevention and treatment access; with special emphasis on behavior change interventions such as increased condom use and reduction of sexual partners.

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Published

2021-01-22

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 10 (2020): IJIERT

Section

Articles

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How to Cite

DR. SMARTSON P. NYONI, & MR. THABANI NYONI. (2021). ADULTS NEWLY INFECTED WITH HIV IN KENYA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH. International Journal of Innovations in Engineering Research and Technology, 7(10), 1-7. https://repo.ijiert.org/index.php/ijiert/article/view/84