OPEN DEFECATION IN LESOTHO: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH
Abstract
Using annual time series data onthe number of people who practice open defecation in Lesothofrom 2000 –2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing opendefecation over the period 2018–2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. ThediagnosticADF tests show thattheODLseries under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC,the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further revealthat the presented model isindeedstable and its residuals are not serially correlatedand are also normally distributed.The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Lesothois likely to decline,over the period2018 –2022, from approximately 26.3% to almost 22.4% of the total population. Indeed, open defecationremains a significant public health issue in Lesotho. The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the governmentof Lesotho
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