OPEN DEFECATION IN SOLOMON ISLANDS: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data onthe number of people who practice open defecation in Solomon Islandsfrom 2000 –2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 –2022. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. ThediagnosticADF tests show thattheODPSseries under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC,the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further revealthat the presented model isquitestable and its residuals are stationary in levelsand also normally distributed.The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Solomon Islandsis likely to declineslightlyover the period2018 –2022, from approximately 53.5% to 52.7% of the total population.This points to the fact that open defecation is persistant in Solomon Islands and is still unacceptably high. The study suggested a two-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of the Solomon Islands.