UNIVARIATE MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF ENERGY DEMAND
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Abstract
A thorough assessment of energy sources and long-term energy demand predictions are crucial to the development of sustainable energy planning and policy for any country. However, these are uncommon practices in Nigeria, thereby resulting in shortage of energy supplies required by the economy and its growing population. In this study, energy demand in the commercial and public services, industrial, and residential sectors of the Nigerian economy is examined using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Markov Switching, and Unobserved Component models. The results of the comparative study show that Markov Switching model performs better than Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Unobserved Component Model for energy demand forecasting. The outcomes further suggest that the energy demand in Nigeria will grow at an average annual rate of less than 2% from 2018 to 2050 in all the three sectors investigated. In view of these findings, the Nigerian Government should have made effort to collaborate with relevant stakeholders, aiming at harnessing the abundant energy resources needed to meet the future energy consumption with a guarantee of energy security and sustainability in the country.
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