OPEN DEFECATION IN SOMALIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH
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Abstract
Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Somalia from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2022. The study employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODX series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Somalia is likely to decline over the period 2018 – 2022, from 26.16% to 18.65% of the total population. In order to effectively sustain this desirable downwards trend, the study suggested a threefold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the Somalian government.
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